Sunday, January 29, 2006

GM stock...get long at the bottom...

Also on Friday I picked up some GM stock, bought some Jun '06 futures at
$22.92 in £4 a tick. The whole world is too bearish on this company, I
really think they manage to reform themselves over the coming years and
manage to avoid bankruptcy.

They still have great technology, a great brand name in the US,
significant (albeit falling) market share, and once they sell a majority
stake in GMAC, not only will they get a huge cash injection, but GMAC
will be even more profitable if it can borrow in the capital markets at
much lower yields than at the moment (GMAC bonds trade ~4.50% over
LIBOR, if a bank took a majority stake in them, they could probably
borrow money below 1.00% over LIBOR...that is an ENORMOUS saving on the
amount the borrow/lend).

With the market cap of the company ~$12bn, this looks a bargain. This
will be one of those stocks that in 3 years time when it has tripled,
everyone will be saying how obvious a trade it was. Kirk Kerkorian has
been involved in turnaround stories before, don't be surprised if he
does it again. I will probably be adding to this position shortly.

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