Tuesday, May 16, 2006

IT problems...here is a post from yesterday (the 15th May) - Covered the CAC position during today's equity rout:

Bought back May '06 CAC short at 5075 in £5/point, putting to an end the
trade where I was long the DAX versus short FTSE/CAC...took in £734 in
total on that trade. It's just not enough though!

Also just in the interests of book-keeping, I was stopped out on the
small EURUSD position I put on the other day with a tight stop-loss.

Year-to-Date P+L is down £11,500...not great given I was up about that
amount at one point! Analysing the book, the problem seems to have been
1) not taking my profit on the GBPUSD trade, 2) not cutting the GBPUSD
trade as it moved the other way, even though I even wrote that the price
action looked like it was going to keep going up. 3) Sizing my trades
wrong...the GBPUSD was much bigger than the other trades, so P+L moves
in that have swamped the portfolio.

Anyway...in the markets...IAC Corp falling away from the level I own it,
I may cut it if it drops a little more. Dow Jones put spread is looking
good, if only it would fall as much as the European markets have the
last few days. And bigger picture, I am willing to bet on the FED being
done, the US economy slowing down, taking the rest of the global economy
slowly down with it...5% rates should support the USD though, as it will
be some time, if at all, that GBP/EUR/JPY rates catch up with it. And
with tighter Central Banks, risky assets will suffer, so that means
playing equities from the short side. I'll try and keep the main risk in
options, since volatility is so cheap at the moment and i'll be net
buying vol. And as for commodities...well, what a crazy market. Am I
supposed to bowl right in there and short the likes of copper?
Probably...over time people will just adjust by using other materials
instead of copper, now that it has TRIPLED in price from a few years
ago. There must be producers out there REALLY HURTING on these commodity
moves...maybe its the car makers? Economic slowdown, higher interest
rates and higher raw materials? Sounds like a great short. Will be
thinking about this.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

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»

11 June, 2006 12:58  
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21 July, 2006 13:30  
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23 July, 2006 10:26  

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