Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Another trade on Euro rates

Sold £15/cent of March 2008 EURIBOR @ 96.015...ie. its pricing in 3 month LIBOR at 3.985% in Mar '08. Given that the ECB is going to hike to 3.75% on Thursday, and money supply is expanding at far too rapid a pace, it seems logical to think that over the next year rates need to go up significantly in order to tighten excess in risk-taking markets. This is a no-brainer trade, and reminds me of when everyone was calling a top in the Fed Funds rate when it hit 3%, then 4%, then 5%.....

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