Tuesday, February 07, 2006

FX...short cable dropping nicely, we are in a powerful position. Sell 1 week puts.


Well shorting the pound versus the dollar has worked exactly as
planned...the FED hiked, and the market is pricing in another hike
(market odds are over 80% that the FED goes to 4.75% at the end of
March). This has caused a dollar rally, and we are about £4,500 in the
money. Whilst I still think cable has a LONG way to drop (sub 1.50 by
year-end), lets take advantage of our P+L, the market move AND our
beliefs and sell some puts out to next Friday (the 17th). I just sold £7
a point of the 1.7350 put at 56.8, which pockets us £398, and at worst
we get taken out of half our position in 10 days time at effectively
just under 1.73
(thats 1.7350 minus the 0.0056 option premium which we keep), at which
point we'd be up ~£6,350 or more. Not a bad return in 3 weeks!

Would be great to get some opposite thoughts on why the £ might go
up...I am getting REALLY bulled up on this trade and could do with some
perspective...

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice colors. Keep up the good work. thnx!
»

17 May, 2006 12:28  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great site loved it alot, will come back and visit again.
»

17 May, 2006 12:48  

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