Monday, June 12, 2006

*** FROM June 7th...Blogger having problems *** Sold more Oil earlier...and its working:

Was thinking more about my Oil trade earlier, so sold another £10/cent
at 71.89 of July '06 US Crude earlier today. And its working. Oil is
falling. Stocks are falling. The US economy is slipping, and so it is
clear that stocks will continue to fall, commodities will fall, Crude
has been high on speculation and will fall to $50 a barrel in short
order.

Treasuries are a screaming buy, although the number one trade in the
market, that unfortunately I can't trade as IG Index doesn't offer it,
is Fed Fund July '06 futures. Last I looked it was trading at 94.80, so
pricing in 80% chance of FED hiking rates this month, but I would be
willing to spend £10,000 to win £40,000...must think of a way I can put
that on. With 10y Treasuries at 5%, they are NOT pricing in rate hikes.
Remember my trades from earlier this year, when I shorted 10y Treasuries
at 4.38% because FED was DEFINITELY going to 4.50% and a good chance of
carrying on...if the FED goes to 5.25%, 10yrs cannot hold 5%.

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