Monday, September 11, 2006

Don't worry, traderboy is still going! Taking profit on half of my Oil short, and adding Pipex:


Just bought back half my Oil short...paid $65.57 to buy back £10/cent of
the October contract (I had originally shorted the Jun '06 contract on
June 12th at 71.89, I paid to roll it a couple of times, I'll work out
the P+L and post it shortly. But looks like I should have made 500-600
points in £10/point, so £5000-£6000 pounds...and I am still short
another £10 from June. I really think Oil could collapse back to $40 on
a US-led global slowdown, and the fact that OPEC can still pump Oil for
probably $15 a barrel so aren't going to be cutting back on pumping the
stuff. But felt the need to take half my position back, as when it was
up at $80 and I was down about £15,000 I was REALLY concerned and began
to doubt my position...so maybe the size of it was too big relative to
my other trades.

And a new trade today...I bought £40/penny of Pipex Communications, a UK
telco (PCX LN on Bloomberg off the top of my head)...this company is an
ISP, and has been buying some broadband services such as Bulldog and
Toucan, so building a broadband subscriber base. No big deal, and that
wouldn't usually appeal to me, buying customers like that, BUT this
company has a joker up its sleeve...it has one of only TWO Wi-Max
licences in the UK (I think BT has the other but I'm not sure on
that)...if you don't know what Wi-Max is, you should search for it on
Google.

This is going to revolutionalise the world in a couple of years. It's
like Wi-Fi, but instead of the few hundred feet that Wi-Fi can
broadcast, Wi-Max can broadcast up to 30 kilometres (about 20 miles for
you imperialists). So to blanket the world in Wi-Max, in the same way
mobile operators covered the globe, should be fairly easy. And then you
can connect to the internet from ANYWHERE, and its superfast broadband,
faster than the line into your home. You could just turn on your
computer anywhere and be instantly connected (to, say, PIPEX)...or you
can get a "mobile" phone which just connects to the internet and allows
you to make free calls over the 'net, just as easily as your mobile
works now. This is going to DESTROY Vodafone.

Market cap of Pipex today is £250mm...isn't this the type of company
that could just as easily be worth £5bn if they get their model right
(to put it into context, BT is worth ~£20bn and Vodafone ~£80bn, again I
think that's about right, without checking it on bloomberg). Get long
now. I may take this position up to £100,000 notional (so about
£95/penny) but want to mull it over for a few days, and see ow the
position evolves.

Now the dull summer is over, the posts and the trades should become more
regular. I put on no trades for the last few months, so every trade is
still fully documented in the blog. I will do a P+L update soon.

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