Thursday, September 14, 2006

Setting up more bearish equity market trades:


Bearish option trade on the DOW...~ flat premium:

I sold December 11,500 call @ 335 in £10/tick (ie. I receive £3,350
premium)
I bought December 11,000 put @ 115 in £30/tick (ie. I pay £3,450
premium)

Taking £10/tick risk above current levels, I get exposure to £30/tick on
the way down, in exchange for missing the first 500 points of the
move...which is less than 5%.

I think there is a decent chance of an equity rout as the slowdown
unfolds this year. Risk I see though is that the equity market takes FED
cuts (or the pricing in of FED cuts) as a positive for
equities...although I disagree with the usual reasoning touted around.
Rates go down because economy slows down = bad news for corporate
profits.

We'll see how this unfolds. I like it.

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