Thursday, January 04, 2007

Closing Copper short after a perfect trade, and doubling up the Exxon short:

Covering my Copper short that I put on on Dec 19 at 301.20 in £1/cent, I had put a buy order in at 260.00, the level i'd written in my original post that I planned to buy it back. £4,080, that'll do nicely. Chart still looks ugly, but that is a very fast correction, down ~13% in 2 weeks, can't argue with that! Again, thanks to Mish for the original idea.
 
I also shorted ExxonMobil at the end of November selling the Mar '07 future at $77.00 in £5/cent. The Mar '07 contract is trading at 73.00 today (the stock is ~72.50), oil is dropping and the chart doesn't look good for this stock. I've doubled my position by selling another £5/tick, and put a stop at my average price of 75.00 on this contract, so at worst I'll be stopped out flat, but hopefully I can ride this down another 5-10%.
 
That'll do for today, am short on time. So far this year I'm up £11,500, thanks to Copper, Exxon and my long in Dec '07 Eurodollars, although my timing on that one looks like it could have been better.
 
Am more and more convinced of my US stock index shorts...P/E multiples are too high, and I think the slowdown/recession risk is not being priced in and will take the market by surprise when it finally dawns that the best is behind us.

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