Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Shorting some JC Penney...US retailers surely can't go higher?

Selling about £42,000 of JC Penney (JCP), £5/cent of the Sep contract at $84.76. Stock trading at $82.84 just now.
Market cap of $18.7bn, with a P/E of 16.6, far too high given we are probably at the high-end of the earnings cycle generally in the US, and with some significant risks retailers face if the housing crash unfolds as it looks like it will, not to mention the warning signal of recession from an inverted yield curve and falling M1 money supply.
Risks to this trade? That they get bought by private equity. But I think this risk is giving a fantastic entry point, as the stock has been bid up on these rumours.(52-week range is $57.43 to $87.18). Looks compelling.


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