Monday, April 16, 2007

Trying to catch a big trend in USD/JPY

Buying some September '07 USD/JPY at 117.54 in £5/cent. Think the Yen could move into a long-term down trend...back in 1985 it was trading at 277, in 1995 it hit 82, and is currently just under 120. The 200-day moving has been steadily moving up since hitting a low in mid-2005, and it seems to me the Japanese are in no hurry to normalise rates, and although the US could be cutting rates this year, I have that trade on in Eurodollars so can think of myself as having a bit of protection on that front.
 
I'm putting a 50 cent stop on it (from the mid of the market where I put it on), so down ~£300 is my worst-case. And I plan to add to it if it moves my way. Lets see.

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