Tuesday, March 28, 2006

So the FED keeps going. And a trade post from a couple days ago:

First off, just to say that I was thinking about the size of my
positions, and decided that given how strong my view is that Treasuries
are (massively) over-valued, I needed to have a bigger short on, so sold
another £10/cent of 10y Jun '06 Futures at 107.44, taking my size up to
£20/cent (which makes it about £150/basis point).

That was when 10yrs were around 4.71% I think, but now they have sold
off a decent amount today following consumer confidence in the US being
through the roof, and the FED hiking (plus German IFO also very high).
10y Treasuries last 4.79%. Haven't read the FED statement yet, but it
seems to me that despite rates now at 4.75%, the US economy is in
overdrive, with unemployment low (4.7%) and dropping further, and credit
conditions still exceptionally loose. Long rates are still low, as are
credit spreads, allowing both private equity and the consumer to borrow
to spend. This will not end until money becomes more expensive, so we
probably need another 100-200bps increase in long rates. Lets face it,
with the FED at 4.75% and looking like they are going to 5.00%, 10y
Treasuries would still not look terribly cheap even at 6.00%.

The bond market meltdown is coming, be prepared.


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