Friday, September 29, 2006

This could be one of the best trades out there...selling Dec '07 EURIBOR:

Sold £75/tick of Dec '07 Euribor at 96.25.

In case you don't know, this is trading on where 3m LIBOR will be in Dec
'07...over the long-term, 3m LIBOR has typically been 10bps higher than
base rates (and can be significantly higher during a rate hiking cycle).
Currently, Euro rates are at 3.00% and clearly going up at LEAST once
more. The ECB will be EXTREMELY relectant to entertain cuts in the
future I think due to runaway money supply growth over the last few
years. And I think Europe is slowly reforming, allowing economies to
expand faster (we can see this from falling unemployment levels in
France/Germany etc).

There is no reason that rates shouldn't be at least 4% by the end of
next year, which would mean 35bps in this trade (the rate is 100.00
minus the price of the Euribor future). And I think this has very little
downside but significant upside if the central bank gets more hawkish
and starts raising aggressively.

Would like to have this position higher, but I missed ~5 ticks by not
trading this morning, so will increase it over time.


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